The crypto market has seen significant volatility over the past few days. Bitcoin (BTC) is once again trading around $86,400, having slipped to $84,600 earlier in the session. While this small recovery offers some relief, BTC remains well below its yearly high of $126,198. The market cap remains at around $1.72 trillion, and the 24-hour trading volume of over $45 billion clearly indicates that while liquidity is present in the market, confidence remains weak.
What do the technical charts say? Will the decline stop, or will BTC fall further
Technical indicators currently show a tired market. The RSI is at 25, indicating that Bitcoin is in the oversold zone, and selling pressure is weakening. The MACD is at -5,585 and continues to give bearish signals. The ADX is at 46, meaning the trend remains in a strong downtrend.
The 10-day EMA is near $90,000, and the 200-day SMA is near $110,000, both acting as heavy resistance.
The trend will not be considered positive until BTC closes above $94,000–$97,000. A close below $80,000 could push the market towards the $74,500–$76,000 zone.
Short-Term Market Behavior: The Battle for $85,000 Continues
Intraday charts show strong buying near $80,537, leading to a small recovery. $85,000 has now become the most important level for the short-term trend.
The daily chart is still showing a series of lower highs and lower lows, meaning the trend is currently negative. There is a large supply at $90,000 and $100,000, which will try to prevent any surge.
Federal Reserve’s Tightening Policy Worsens Crypto’s Condition
The biggest reason behind Bitcoin’s decline is the Federal Reserve’s tight monetary policy. Delays in inflation and economic data have also added to the market’s uncertainty.
Major financial firms like Morgan Stanley don’t expect a rate cut before 2026, and this is putting pressure on non-yielding assets like BTC. The dollar index is also holding strong near 100, further pressuring global risk assets.
A Mild Return of Institutional Investors: Is This a Sign of a Reversal?
After several weeks of outflows, BTC ETFs saw net inflows of approximately $238 million. Fidelity’s FBTC alone recorded inflows of $108 million. Although BlackRock’s IBIT ETF saw $122 million in outflows, the overall ETF market showed recovery. Trade volume of $11 billion and AUM of $110 billion suggest that institutional investors are slowly returning but not yet fully confident.
What does on-chain data show
Blockchain data shows that investors are gradually accumulating between $83,000 and $85,000. Exchange outflows of over $1.2 billion indicate that holders are moving BTC into cold storage, which is often considered a bullish sign. But leverage in the futures market remains high, meaning the conditions for a sustainable reversal are not fully developed.
Strong Connection to the Stock Market
Bitcoin is currently trading in high correlation with the NASDAQ and tech stocks such as NVDA, AMD, COIN, and others. The correlation with the NASDAQ Composite (IXIC) is around 0.78, meaning BTC has now become a fully macro-driven asset.
| Factor | Current Status |
|---|---|
| Current Price | ~$86,400 |
| Daily Low / High | $84,679 / $87,445 |
| Market Cap | ~$1.72 Trillion |
| 24h Volume | $45+ Billion |
| RSI | 25 (Oversold) |
| MACD | −5,585 (Bearish) |
| Key Support | $83,000 → $80,000 |
| Major Resistance | $90,000 → $100,000 |
| YTD Performance | +11.39% |
| ETF Net Flows | +$238 Million |
Frequently Asked Questions
Q1. Can Bitcoin drop below $80,000?
Yes, if BTC fails to hold support at $85,000 and $82,000, it could break $80,000.
Q2. Could this be a good buying opportunity?
A short-term rally is possible due to oversold conditions, but large investments are safe only after a trend reversal.
Q3. Will ETF inflows strengthen the market?
Yes, but it’s important to monitor consistent inflows. One or two days of inflows are indicators, not trends.
Disclaimer: This article is for educational and informational purposes only. The crypto market is highly volatile. Consult your financial advisor before making any investments. None of the content in the article constitutes financial advice.
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